Market Outlook 2022
1.19.2022 False Alarm We believe the fed will not raise rates this year more than two times. It’s not necessary and it’s an election year. Our Reasoning is as follows: We believe raising rates 4 times or more will lead to…
2021 Newsletter – 6.16.21
We had exceptional performance in our fiscal year 2020 due to the dislocation that came from Covid-19. In addition, our exposure to oil and gas particularly in the form of shrinking supply in both oil and gas markets moved prices higher.…
CORONAVIRUS, FEAR & THE FED
President Trump Should Make Nice with Jerome Powell By John Lekas, Leader Capital The fear of the economic effects of the coronavirus is spreading far faster than the bug itself. Big headlines blared over the weekend that the virus now…
The Next Meltdown
One Scary Scenario for What Could Go Wrong By John Lekas, Leader Capital A friend of mine was bragging the other day about the returns in the “529” college investment fund he set up years ago for his daughter: up…
The Topsy-Turvy Twenties
Brace for good gains and jarring volatility in 2020 By John Lekas, Leader Capital Market pundits are in a race to coin the perfect banner for the next decade: the Roaring Twenties has been done, how about the Soaring Twenties?…
2020 OUTLOOK
We are coming off a record year in equities as we close out 2019. Equities made record highs and interest rates reversed in dramatic fashion versus their 2018 levels. We are closing out this year with a high amount of…
REGUNOMICS
It is our view that monetary and fiscal policy cannot affect the economic trajectory. It is the Federal, State, and Local policies that are killing the system. The dollar has gone up ever since the Fed has come out dovish…
BBB is junk
700 billion of refis in corporate America coming in 2019. Per recent Barron’s article (1/12/19), should bring significant downgrades in corporate credit. We believe downgrades roll down: i.e. BBB to BB+, BB+ to BB, etc. We believe we retrace the…
VIX Indicates Low in the Market
We believe the intermediate low is in on the equity markets (when the VIX hit 50) Markets should be range bound for the foreseeable future (Dow: 23775 to 26616, S&P: 2600 to 2872, Nasdaq: 6800 to 7505) Credit markets, commodities,…
Dollar Free Fall
We believe the U.S. deficit will be greater than $2 trillion Dollar trouble could cause Federal Reserve to raise 5-6 times We believe the dollar will be 10% lower by summer